The presidents of Russia and Azerbaijan pass the honor guard in lockstep.
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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Medvedev Goes into the Gas Industry
Russian President Dmitry Medvedev arrived in Baku yesterday for a visit. Kommersant special correspondent Andrey Kolesnikov noted that, even though the day ended with a conversation with religious leaders on the sublime, most of it was spent talking about Azerbaijan’s subterranean wealth. The same topic will dominate in today’s talks between the presidents of Russia and Turkmenistan and tomorrow’s with the president of Kazakhstan.
In May, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliev finished construction on his residence, and Ukrainian President Viktor Yushchenko visited before the Russian president. One could say that they tested the residence on Yushchenko. It is striking how similar are all the residences of all the heads of state where oil and gas are – white marble walls, oversized crystal chandeliers, enormous bathrooms… Those residences are scattered throughout Central Asia, and beyond.
The ceremony to greet the Russian president was brief. The president spent much more time waiting on the square for it to begin, along with the honor guard and the Russian and Azerbaijani delegations. When the Russian national anthem sounded, I, with red eyes still from three weeks of watching European soccer, expected the members of the Russian delegation to put their arms around each other’s shoulders, make emotive facial expressions and sing along, s much as they could. They didn’t. Maybe it was too bad.
At the residence, official Gazprom representative Sergey Kupriyanov said that a Gazprom delegation had come a month ago to suggest that the country’s leadership think about selling Azerbaijan’s natural gas. Not so long ago, Azerbaijan was buying Russian gas, but now the pipeline that once pumped 5 billion cu. m. per year is empty. They were interested in the Gazprom proposal in Azerbaijan, it seems. Obviously, it sounded audacious. The GUAM countries are also contending for Azerbaijani oil and gas. That organization was founded for the sake of oil and gas and to resist Gazprom’s monopoly.
Gazprom suggested that the Azeris think about their offer for a month. Obviously, it was something tempting. But it is a political decision. Therefore, it was discussed by the presidents yesterday. Judging by the way Gazprom CEO Alexey Miller was acting and talking after yesterday’s negotiations, they were successful for the monopoly. Miller spoke cautiously on the topic. He announced that negotiations had begun on conditions for the purchase of Azerbaijani gas. Aliev was a little more loquacious. He said that he and Medvedev considered a new gas project together that “is of interest and would be mutually beneficial.” That is, he spoke of it as a done deal, or at least as one he would like to do. In Azerbaijan, it’s the same thing.
After that was the most lyrical moment of the meeting. War veteran Agadadash Samedov was awarded to medals – the Order of Glory, second and third degrees. Medvedev pronounced his name as though he sees him every day after work.
For the veteran, who had spent his whole life in Azerbaijan, there was only one person in existence at that moment. Agadadash Samedov shook his hand, put his hand on his shoulder, told him something and laughed, and thought of no one else. It was the happiest moment in his life and he was enjoying every bit of it. President Ilham Aliev smiled at him politely but somewhat distractedly. Maybe he didn’t understand how to behave with him and what to expect from him. So he smiled politely.
Then the veteran noticed the Russian president, and Dmitry Medvedev became the recipient of what tenderness Agadadash Samedov had not spent on Aliev. Medvedev was not the great man that Aliev was in his eyes, but, in the end, it was Medvedev who presented him with the two Orders of Glory. Alexey Miller gave out something else quite precious – his forecast for oil prices. He said that, if oil reaches $250 per barrel soon (making it clear that he was expecting it), the price of natural gas “will exceed $1000 per 1000 cu. m.”
“But that price won’t be unnatural for the market,” Miller continued. “That is, there have been precedents, when the price on individual contracts has exceeded $1000.” He added that Gazprom has changed its forecast and “by the end of 2008, the price of gas in Europe will be more than $500 per 1000 cu. m.” (That is $100 higher than the previous forecast.) Miller made one more sensational announcement (which was expected the day before the visit to Turkmenistan). Gazprom, he said, is ready to buy natural gas from Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan and other Central Asian countries at European market prices.
When asked how much gas Gazprom is prepared to buy, Miller smiled big and answered, “We’re prepared to buy all the gas they’ll sell us.”
After that, apparently, the idea of the constructing the troubled Nabucco pipeline was supposed to seem ridiculous. And maybe it is. A few minutes earlier, when I asked about the status of construction of the Prikaspiisky pipeline from Turkmenistan, which Russia had been pushing for (it is apparently the pipeline through which “as much as they will sell us” will flow), a Gazprom executive answered that “first Turkmenistan should determine how much gas it can sell us, then we should decide what our investment will be in it.”
That is, even before negotiations with Turkmenistan, which will take place today, Gazprom, offering European market prices for Turkmen gas, is trying to get a number for the volume of that gas. Thus, trading for Turkmen gas continues, to the joy of the Ukrainians, for one, who are among its main consumers.
In the heat of the talks in Baku, it became known that Medvedev had finally freed Roman Abramovich from his office as governor of Chukotka. But Kommersant has learned that it is premature to congratulate Abramovich. As a high-placed member of the Russian delegation said, “Someone like that with talent like that will not remain without work in the Russian state.” Kommersant has also learned that Abramovich may soon be entrusted with something big.
After leaving a wreath at the grave of Heidar Aliev (while the honor guard secretly drank a strange concoction of water, candy and lemon, which, they said, helped against blackouts, the professional risk of every honor guard), Medvedev met with the religious leaders of Azerbaijan.
That meeting was the end of Medvedev’s official program in Baku. It was, of course, supposed to end on a high note. Chairman of the Caucasus Muslims Clerical Board Allahshukur Pashazada, Rabbi Semen Ikhilin and Orthodox priest Father Alexander were waiting for him. The meeting was brief, but Allahshukur Pashazada told journalists, “We lived within a single state for a long time, and that tendency has continued in recent years.”
Judging from the natural gas agreements, that is indeed so.
Andrey Kolesnikov
All the Article in Russian as of July 04, 2008
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