The Hot Governors
The politicians we have identified are highly varied, but they can be divided into groups that we have called “stars,” “businessmen,” “enforcers” and “drak horses.”
Stars
Krasnodar Territory Governor Alexander Tkachev is often seen near the president. He is an ardent
patriot and fighter for ethnic purity of the Russian population. He has repeatedly suggested that those whose last names end in –yan, -shvili, -dze or –ogli leave his territory. Tkachev would be the best defender of the “native population” of Russia, which has been a concern of the president's as well lately. Tkachev would receive good promotion if Sochi won its bid to host the Olympics.
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| Photo: Sergey Mikheev |
| Sergey Sobyanin, chief of the presidential executive staff and former governor Tyumen Region |
Former governor of Tyumen Region Sergey Sobyanin recommends himself as one of the most administrative politicians. In 2000, when he was speaker of the parliament of Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Area, he was one of the reformers of the
Federation Council paving the way for the expulsion of governors. Then he took the helm of Tyumen Region at the Kremlin's behest. When the law on the appointment of governors was passed, he was one of the first to seek the president's reapproval. In 2005, he was unexpectedly named head of the presidential executive staff. In the two years he has been on that position, he has grown in stature there and gravitated toward the enforcers. But he is a nonpublic politician and has no great accomplishments in the eyes of the voters.
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| Photo: Pavel Smertin |
| Russian Natural Resources Minister and former governor of Perm Region Yury Trutnev |
Minister of Natural Resources Yury Trutnev's name is frequently seen on lists of potential successors. He has the particular advantage of having a black belt in karate. He also distinguished himself as the first governor to take up the president's call to fortify the regions. He managed the merger of
Komi-Permyak Autonomous Area with his Perm Region and was rewarded a place in the federal government for his enthusiasm. He is considered equidistant from all possible Kremlin clans, which the president supposedly values him for. He also put in a brilliant performance in the special operation to take Sakhalin away from Shell.
Rumors that
Valentina Matvienko may succeed Putin are heard as often as speculation about Sergey Ivanov and Dmitry Medvedev. Matvienko is the ideal figure to occupy the presidential office until 2012 when she could give way to Putin again. She enjoys the confidence the president – otherwise he would not have trusted her with his native city. In addition, electing a woman president would probably improve Russia's image in the West. One of the most recent rumors is the assassination plot uncovered against her was the beginning of a massive PR project dubbed Valentina the Great.
Businessmen
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| Photo: Dmitry Azarov |
| Governor of Krasnoyarsk Territory Alexander Khloponin |
Krasnoyarsk Territory Governor Alexander Khloponin, the former head of
Norilsk Nickel, retains rare public charisma. It is not hard to form that image in the North – it suffices to wear an old Soviet-made fur hat. He is known for his grand investment projects and has almost become a symbol of the state-private partnership encouraged by the authorities. Khloponin was the first is also true o the idea fortifying the regions. He pulled Evenkia and Taimyr into the embrace of Krasnoyarsk Territory. And then he united al the region's institutions of higher education into the Siberian National University.
Tver Region Governor Dmitry Zelenin, a former Norilsk Nickel executive, shows his bosses daily what a plus a background in business is. Business connections in Tver Region have been put to the use of state interests. For instance, the governor is zealously implementing the state program to repatriate Russians from abroad. And they have called him to work on the youth front too. He was one of the first to promise activists in the pro-Kremlin
Nashi youth movement promising careers in business and government.
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| Photo: Oleg Nikolaev |
| President of Republic Sakha (Yakutia) Vyacheslav Shtyrov |
President of Yakutia Vyachselav Shtyrov was the head of the
ALROSA diamond company. Putin may think that the former diamond king will not encroach on other realms – such as
Gazprom. Shtyrov already has successful experience with choosing a successor. In 2002, when federal authorities decided to unseat Yakutian president Mikhail Nikolaev, they called on Shtyrov to run against him. Shtyrov did not let him down. Another plus for Shtyrov is that is is not involved in Kremlin power struggles.
Enforcers
Ulyanovsk Region Governor Sergey Morozov spent half in Interior Ministry agencies. He is memorable for his creative approach his work a governor. He erected a monument to the latter “E” in the region, created Gas and Oil Workers Square and the Give Birth to a Patriot on Russia Day program. After Putin called for the development of libraries in his address to the Federal Assembly, Morozov launched the Give a Library a Book program and ordered the city gardeners to trim up the bushes in the form of open books.
Smolensk Governor Viktor Maslov is little known in Moscow. He is a Putin appointee and a member of the
FSB. As governor, he has shown his ability to work with the independent media: when the magazine
Smolensk published an article critical of him, he had the entire print run confiscated. He is one of the most enthusiastic supporters of a third term for Putin.
Voronezh Governor Vladimir Kulakov is another FSB member – regional leader. His region is reputed to be one of the most nationalistic because of the many attacks on foreign students there. Considering the growth of nationalism in the country as a whole, that is no disadvantage. Kulakov his also known for his battle against the Rodina, which was once powerful in his region.
Dark Horses
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| Photo: |
| Bryansk Region Governor Nikolay Denin |
The only thing that can be said about Bryansk Governor Nikolay Denin is that almost no one in Moscow has heard of him. And that is a plus. Before he became governor, Denin was a member of
the State Duma from United Russia. He was completely unnoticeable there. Probably the only notable event that Denin had any connection to was when he struck a woman while driving his
Toyota Land Cruiser and killed her in January 2005. An investigation determined that Denin was not speeding and that the woman threw herself under the car. That story could make the governor am obedient and manageable successor.
Kirov Region Governor Nikolay Shaklein made it onto the short list because there is nothing to criticize him for. He has managed not to distinguish himself for his entire political career. He won the gubernatorial election without being a United Russia Party member, but the party supported him for lack of anyone better. Naturally, he joined the party after that. Current Minister of Regional Development Vladimir Yakovlev is the most mysterious figure in the Russian government. There is practically nothing known about his real relations with the president. In 1996, Putin called him a Judas for running against Anatoly Sobchak for governor of St. Petersburg. However, once he became president, he did not banish Yakovlev. After leaving the governor's post in 2003, Yakovlev held a number of high positions. He was deputy prime minister, presidential representative in the Southern Federal District and finally minister of regional development. The public knows little about what he does in the ministry. Only after the name of the successor becomes known will it be clear what Putin is saving up Yakovlev for.
They Have Successors in Africa Too
The inauguration of new Nigerian President Umaru Yar'Adua took place last month. Half a year ago, Yar'Adua was the known governor of a province in the north of Nigeria. Then president Olusegun Obasanjo chose him to be his successor.
The Nigerian succession campaign began after long debates about whether Obasanjo should stay for a third term The president himself said that it would take several more years for him to finish what he had begun. But he also emphasized his devotion to democracy and said that he would not change the constitution, which forbids the head of state from being elected a third time. Obasanjo also stopped his supporters from making changes to the constitution. It was long though that Obasanjo could have only one of two successors: Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former businessman who had run the country's largest oil company and a media business, or Gen. Ibrahim Babangida, who has the reputation of a hard military man. Both of them were counting on the president's support to run as the candidate of the party in power, which is a guarantee of victory. At the last moment, however, Obasanjo decided against supporting the well known and promoted politicians. Apparently dissatisfied with the increasing political independence his potential successors were showing as they made more and more frequent appearances on television, the head of state pulled them out of the race. Abubakar was accused of corruption and deprived of party membership for three months. It was even simpler to deal with Babangida. He withdrew after the president announced that he would not support him.
The decisive choice was made four months before the elections. At a party congress, Obasanjo proposed that the inconspicuous governor of the northern Katsina Province Umaru Yar'Adua be chosen as presidential candidate. All other comers immediately stepped down. The president's supporters were in shock. They had elected Obasanjo as the irreplaceable “conscience of the party.” In April, Yar'Adua was elected president. International observers found numerous instances of voting fraud and refused to acknowledge the elections.
