19.11.2006 Vietnam, Khanoi. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov during a meeting of Russian President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President George W. Bush at an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit.
Photo: Dmitry Azarov
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Major Confusion
The Russian Government’s relations with the U.S. President-elect are starting with confusion. According to Russian diplomats and even Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, President Medvedev will be able to meet with Barack Obama at the G20 summit in Washington, which will focus on countering the financial crisis. But Barack Obama has sent a clear message that he is not going to hold talks with Dmitry Medvedev. Moreover, he is not going to attend the G20 summit at all.
The Kremlin cites Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev as arranging a meeting during their recent telephone conversation, despite the fact that Barack Obama’s representatives stated that Dmitry Medvedev’s talks with Barack Obama are unlikely.
Barack Obama’s refusal to attend the G20 summit is not connected with U.S.-Russian relations. In fact he didn’t live up to the expectations of many leaders, who hoped to take advantage of the global forum and establish personal contacts with the next U.S. President. Members of Obama’s team admit that his absence will cause an uncomfortable situation; but should he attend the summit, he would not be able to avoid awkwardness either. How should the world treat his statements given that Bush is still the master of the White House?
Power transition will take as much as two months and a half, and so far Barack Obama’s main concern is making the right appointments. He is unlikely to introduce political initiatives, including those concerning U.S.-Russian relations, before his inauguration.
Barack Obama cannot be expected to treat relations with Moscow as his top priority at a time of economic recession. Russia isn’t even his most pressing foreign-political problem, not with his hands full with Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran and the Middle East, which unfailingly play a special role in each U.S. President’s policy.
The timeout enables Russia to decide what specifically it expects from Russian-American relations. So far, it is only clear what Russia doesn't want: it doesn't want Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO and U.S. radar and interceptors deployed in Central Europe. But even these critical tasks are not addressed rationally. President Medvedev outlined his stance towards ABM last week, appearing both unduly hasty and determined. Issuing an ultimatum, Moscow slashed America’s options for making concessions.
So what is Russia striving for? For what sake did Dmitry Medvedev seek a meeting with Barack Obama? After all, no matter who is to blame for the present confusion, Russia was obviously keener on the meeting.
Obama’s coming to power gives an opportunity to abandon harsh rhetoric and stick to a constructive approach. But it is not evident that Moscow is willing to use this chance. So far the Russian Government has been taking advantage of the crisis in the relations with the U.S. to consolidate its grip on the country.
Maria Lipman, Carnegie Moscow Center expert
All the Article in Russian as of Nov. 13, 2008
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